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		<title>Pictures from Matt</title>
		<link>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/04/25/pictures-from-matt/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 25 Apr 2009 20:59:53 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[69 picturesClick here to view these pictures larger<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=matthewminkin.wordpress.com&amp;blog=354556&amp;post=81&amp;subd=matthewminkin&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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<p>69 pictures<br /><a href="http://share.shutterfly.com/action/welcome?sid=2AYtW7Jw0ZsXMg&amp;eid=113">Click here to view these pictures larger</a><img width="1" height="1" border="0" src="https://os.shutterfly.com/b/ss/sflyshareprod/1/H.15/111?pageName=sharekey&amp;c1=pictures&amp;c2=wordpress" /></p>
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		<title>Sheriff has is right in Arizona</title>
		<link>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/02/23/sheriff-has-is-right-in-arizona/</link>
		<comments>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/02/23/sheriff-has-is-right-in-arizona/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 23 Feb 2009 16:18:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bigmobile</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/?p=79</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You all remember Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Arizona , who painted the jail cells pink and made the inmates wear pink prison garb. Well&#8230;&#8230;&#8230; SHERIFF JOE IS AT IT AGAIN! Oh, there&#8217;s MUCH more to know about Sheriff Joe! Maricopa County was spending approx. $18 million dollars a year on stray animals, like cats and [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=matthewminkin.wordpress.com&amp;blog=354556&amp;post=79&amp;subd=matthewminkin&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You all remember Sheriff Joe Arpaio of Arizona , who painted the jail cells pink and made the inmates wear pink prison garb. Well&#8230;&#8230;&#8230;                             SHERIFF JOE IS AT IT AGAIN!    Oh, there&#8217;s MUCH more to know about Sheriff Joe!   Maricopa  County was spending approx. $18 million dollars a year on stray animals, like cats and dogs. Sheriff Joe offered to take the department over, and the County Supervisors said okay.   The animal shelters are now all staffed and operated by prisoners. They feed and care for the strays. Every animal in his care is taken out and walked twice daily. He now has prisoners who are experts in animal nutrition and behavior. They give great classes for anyone who&#8217;d like to adopt an animal. He has literally taken stray dogs off the street, given them to the care of prisoners, and had them place in dog shows.   The best part? His budget for the entire department is now under $3 million. Teresa and I adopted a Weimaraner from a Maricopa County shelter two years ago. He was neutered, and current on all shots, in great health, and even had a microchip inserted the day we got him. Cost us $78.   The prisoners get the benefit of about $0.28 an hour for working, but most would work for free, just to be out of their cells for the day. Most of his budget is for utilities, building maintenance, etc. He pays the prisoners out of the fees collected for adopted animals.   I have long wondered when the rest of the country would take a look at the way he runs the jail system, and copy some of his ideas. He has a huge farm, donated to the county years ago, where inmates can work, and they grow most of their own fresh vegetables and food, doing all the work and harvesting by hand.   He has a pretty good sized hog farm, which provides meat, and fertilizer. It fertilizes the Christmas tree nursery, where prisoners work, and you can buy a living Christmas tree for $6 &#8211; $8 for the Holidays, and plant it later. We have six trees in our yard from the Prison.   Yup, he was reelected last year with 83% of the vote.  Now he&#8217;s in trouble with the ACLU again.. He painted all his buses and vehicles with a mural, that has a special hotline phone number painted on it, where you can call and report suspected illegal aliens. Immigrations and Customs Enforcement wasn&#8217;t doing enough in his eyes, so he had 40 deputies trained specifically for enforcing immigration laws, started up his hotline, and bought 4 new buses just for hauling folks back to the border. He&#8217;s kind of a &#8216;Git-R Dun&#8217; kind of Sheriff.   TO THOSE OF YOU NOT FAMILIAR WITH JOE ARPAIO   HE IS THE MARICOPA ARIZONA COUNTY SHERIFF   AND HE KEEPS GETTING ELECTED OVER AND OVER  THIS IS ONE OF THE REASONS WHY:   Sheriff Joe Arpaio (In Arizona ) who created the &#8216; Tent City Jail&#8217;:  He has jail meals down to 40 cents a serving and charges the inmates for them.   He stopped smoking and porno magazines in the jails. Took away their weights Cut off all but &#8216;G&#8217; movies.   He started chain gangs so the inmates could do free work on county and city projects.   Then He Started Chain Gangs For Women So He Wouldn&#8217;t Get  Sued For Discrimination.   He took away cable TV Until he found out there was A Federal Court Order that Required Cable TV For Jails So He Hooked Up The Cable TV Again Only Let In The Disney Channel And The Weather Channel.   When asked why the weather channel He Replied, So They Will Know How Hot It&#8217;s Gonna Be While They Are Working  ON My Chain Gangs.   He Cut Off Coffee Since It Has Zero Nutritional Value.   When the inmates complained, he told them, &#8216;This Isn&#8217;t The Ritz/Carlton&#8230;&#8230;If You Don&#8217;t Like It, Don&#8217;t Come Back.&#8217;    More On The Arizona Sheriff:   With Temperatures Being Even Hotter Than Usual In Phoenix (116 Degrees Just Set A New Record), the Associated Press Reports:  About 2,000 Inmates Living In A Barbed-Wire-Surrounded Tent Encampment At The Maricopa County Jail Have Been Given Permission To Strip Down To Their Government-Issued  Pink Boxer Shorts.   On Wednesday, hundreds of men wearing boxers were either curled up on their bunk beds or chatted in the tents, which reached  138 Degrees Inside The Week Before.   Many Were Also Swathed In Wet, Pink Towels As Sweat Collected On Their Chests And Dripped Down To Their PINK SOCKS.   &#8216;It Feels Li ke We Are In A Furnace,&#8217; Said James Zanzot, An Inmate Who Has Lived In The TENTS for 1 year. &#8216;It&#8217;s Inhumane.&#8217;   Joe Arpaio, the tough-guy sheriff who created the tent city and long ago started making his prisoners wear pink, and eat bologna sandwiches, is not one bit sympathetic. He said Wednesday that he told all of the inmates: &#8216;It&#8217;s 120 Degrees In Iraq And Our Soldiers Are Living In Tents Too, And They Have To Wear Full Battle Gear,  But They Didn&#8217;t Commit Any Crimes,So Shut Your Mouths!&#8217;   Way To Go, Sheriff!   Maybe if all prisons were like this one there would be a lot less crime and/or repeat offenders. Criminals should be punished for their crimes &#8211; not live in luxury until it&#8217;s time for their parole, only to go out and commit another crime so they can get back in to live on taxpayers money and enjoy things taxpayers can&#8217;t afford to have for themselves.</p>
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		<title>Politics Explained</title>
		<link>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/01/08/politics-explained-2/</link>
		<comments>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/01/08/politics-explained-2/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2009 02:50:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bigmobile</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/01/08/politics-explained-2/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Politics Explained FEUDALISM: You have two cows. Your lord takes some of the milk. PURE SOCIALISM: You have two cows. The government takes them and puts them in a barn with everyone else&#8217;s cows. You have to take care of all of the cows. The government gives you as much milk as you need. BUREAUCRATIC [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=matthewminkin.wordpress.com&amp;blog=354556&amp;post=77&amp;subd=matthewminkin&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="content-txt">
<h2 align="center">Politics Explained</h2>
<p>
FEUDALISM: You have two cows. Your lord takes some of the milk.
</p>
<p>
PURE SOCIALISM: You have two cows. The government takes them and puts them<br />
in a barn with everyone else&#8217;s cows. You have to take care of all of the<br />
cows. The government gives you as much milk as you need.
</p>
<p>
BUREAUCRATIC SOCIALISM: You have two cows. The government takes them and<br />
put them in a barn with everyone else&#8217;s cows. They are cared for by<br />
ex-chicken farmers. You have to take care of the chickens the government<br />
took from the chicken farmers. The government gives you as much milk and<br />
eggs as the regulations say you need.
</p>
<p>
FASCISM: You have two cows. The government takes both, hires you to take<br />
care of them and sells you the milk.
</p>
<p>
PURE COMMUNISM: You have two cows. Your neighbors help you take care of<br />
them, and you all share the milk.
</p>
<p>
RUSSIAN COMMUNISM: You have two cows. You have to take care of them, but<br />
the government takes all the milk.
</p>
<p>
CAMBODIAN COMMUNISM: You have two cows. The government takes both of them<br />
and shoots you.
</p>
<p>
DICTATORSHIP: You have two cows. The government takes both and drafts you.
</p>
<p>
PURE DEMOCRACY: You have two cows. Your neighbors decide who gets the milk.
</p>
<p>
REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY: You have two cows. Your neighbors pick someone to<br />
tell you who gets the milk.
</p>
<p>
BUREAUCRACY: You have two cows. At first the government regulates what you<br />
can feed them and when you can milk them. Then it pays you not to milk<br />
them. Then it takes both, shoots one, milks the other and pours the milk<br />
down the drain. Then it requires you to fill out forms accounting for the<br />
missing cows.
</p>
<p>
PURE ANARCHY: You have two cows. Either you sell the milk at a fair price<br />
or your neighbors try to take the cows and kill you.
</p>
<p>
LIBERTARIAN/ANARCHO-CAPITALISM: You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull.
</p>
<p>
SURREALISM: You have two giraffes. The government requires you to take<br />
harmonica lessons.
</p>
<p>
(Original source unknown . . . this version expanded and Illuminated by SJ.)
</p>
</p></div>
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		<title>Politics Explained</title>
		<link>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/01/08/politics-explained/</link>
		<comments>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/01/08/politics-explained/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 08 Jan 2009 02:50:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bigmobile</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/01/08/politics-explained/</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Politics Explained FEUDALISM: You have two cows. Your lord takes some of the milk. PURE SOCIALISM: You have two cows. The government takes them and puts them in a barn with everyone else&#8217;s cows. You have to take care of all of the cows. The government gives you as much milk as you need. BUREAUCRATIC [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=matthewminkin.wordpress.com&amp;blog=354556&amp;post=76&amp;subd=matthewminkin&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div id="content-txt">
<h2 align="center">Politics Explained</h2>
<p>
FEUDALISM: You have two cows. Your lord takes some of the milk.
</p>
<p>
PURE SOCIALISM: You have two cows. The government takes them and puts them<br />
in a barn with everyone else&#8217;s cows. You have to take care of all of the<br />
cows. The government gives you as much milk as you need.
</p>
<p>
BUREAUCRATIC SOCIALISM: You have two cows. The government takes them and<br />
put them in a barn with everyone else&#8217;s cows. They are cared for by<br />
ex-chicken farmers. You have to take care of the chickens the government<br />
took from the chicken farmers. The government gives you as much milk and<br />
eggs as the regulations say you need.
</p>
<p>
FASCISM: You have two cows. The government takes both, hires you to take<br />
care of them and sells you the milk.
</p>
<p>
PURE COMMUNISM: You have two cows. Your neighbors help you take care of<br />
them, and you all share the milk.
</p>
<p>
RUSSIAN COMMUNISM: You have two cows. You have to take care of them, but<br />
the government takes all the milk.
</p>
<p>
CAMBODIAN COMMUNISM: You have two cows. The government takes both of them<br />
and shoots you.
</p>
<p>
DICTATORSHIP: You have two cows. The government takes both and drafts you.
</p>
<p>
PURE DEMOCRACY: You have two cows. Your neighbors decide who gets the milk.
</p>
<p>
REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY: You have two cows. Your neighbors pick someone to<br />
tell you who gets the milk.
</p>
<p>
BUREAUCRACY: You have two cows. At first the government regulates what you<br />
can feed them and when you can milk them. Then it pays you not to milk<br />
them. Then it takes both, shoots one, milks the other and pours the milk<br />
down the drain. Then it requires you to fill out forms accounting for the<br />
missing cows.
</p>
<p>
PURE ANARCHY: You have two cows. Either you sell the milk at a fair price<br />
or your neighbors try to take the cows and kill you.
</p>
<p>
LIBERTARIAN/ANARCHO-CAPITALISM: You have two cows. You sell one and buy a bull.
</p>
<p>
SURREALISM: You have two giraffes. The government requires you to take<br />
harmonica lessons.
</p>
<p>
(Original source unknown . . . this version expanded and Illuminated by SJ.)
</p>
</p></div>
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		<title>One Agency&#8217;s Plan for 2009</title>
		<link>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/01/07/one-agencys-plan-for-2009/</link>
		<comments>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2009/01/07/one-agencys-plan-for-2009/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Jan 2009 22:22:23 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[For What It&#8217;s Worth &#8212; One Agency&#8217;s Plan for 2009 To Emerge Victorious, We&#8217;ll Continue to Adapt Posted by Phil Johnson on 01.05.09 @ 12:43 PM Phil Johnson No predictions for me. I couldn&#8217;t have guessed in a million years what 2008 would bring, although I&#8217;ll be forever grateful that my meager savings didn&#8217;t end [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=matthewminkin.wordpress.com&amp;blog=354556&amp;post=74&amp;subd=matthewminkin&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h1>For What It&#8217;s Worth &#8212; One Agency&#8217;s Plan for 2009</h1>
<h2>To Emerge Victorious, We&#8217;ll Continue to Adapt</h2>
<p class="byline">
<p>				Posted</p>
<p>				by Phil Johnson<br />
				on<br />
				<em><br />
				<a href="http://adage.com/results?endeca=1&amp;return=endeca&amp;search_offset=0&amp;search_order_by=score&amp;search_phrase=01/05/2009" title="Browse all content published on 01/05/2009">01.05.09</a></p>
<p>									@ 12:43 PM								</em>
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<img src="http://adage.com/images/bin/image/x-small/bloghead_johnson.jpg" alt="Phil Johnson" width="100" height="100" /><br />
Phil Johnson</td>
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<p>No predictions for me. I couldn&#8217;t have guessed in a million years what<br />
2008 would bring, although I&#8217;ll be forever grateful that my meager<br />
savings didn&#8217;t end up in Bernie Madoff&#8217;s hands. No advice from me<br />
either. Anyone who reads this blog regularly has gotten some excellent<br />
strategies for staying strong in a tough market from Bart Cleveland,<br />
Tom Martin and Marc Brownstein. We&#8217;d all do well to listen to those<br />
guys. As for pure attitude, I recommend reading Peter Madden whenever<br />
he posts. He&#8217;s like a hockey player with a pen. Instead, let me offer<br />
up what&#8217;s on my agenda for the next year. If nothing else, you&#8217;ll see<br />
how one agency is getting ready to launch into 2009.
<p>
Sitting in my office on Jan. 2, I can&#8217;t tell one way or another which<br />
way this year is going to go &#8212; up, down or sideways. Today, we&#8217;ve got<br />
a decent pipeline, and there are two teams working on new-business<br />
pitches this month. That&#8217;s no guarantee, but even one win puts us on a<br />
nice trajectory. Experience has taught me that as long as the phone<br />
keeps ringing, we&#8217;re good. </p>
<p>
I&#8217;ve been expecting to see more budget cuts from current clients, but<br />
so far any cuts have been modest. On the flip side, we&#8217;re seeing some<br />
excellent media deals that have allowed us to design ambitious programs<br />
with smaller budgets. Our director of planning, Hugh Kennedy, wrote<br />
about some of these media opportunities on his blog, <a href="http://blog.agencypja.com/2008/12/29/advertising/six-reasons-why-2009-is-the-best-media-opportunity-in-years/" class="body" target="_blank">The Complex Brand</a>.<br />
One factor that may work in our favor this year is that two of our<br />
biggest markets are technology and life sciences. While the recession<br />
affects everybody, these sectors have held up better than retail and<br />
financial services. </p>
<p>
I&#8217;m most optimistic about initiatives that have nothing to do with the<br />
economy. For one, I promoted my trusted partner, Mike O&#8217;Toole, to<br />
president of the agency. He&#8217;s played a huge role in our success to<br />
date, and I think he can lead us through our next round of evolution<br />
and growth. A lot of people ask me if I&#8217;m retiring, or slowing down.<br />
Hell no. This is about building our management team and letting the<br />
best people shape our future. Mike and I spent six months looking at<br />
every agency function and assigning responsibilities. At the top of my<br />
list, I&#8217;ve got several client relationships, agency marketing, finances<br />
and strategic planning. Mike&#8217;s got everything else. </p>
<p>
We&#8217;re going to continue to add staff in key areas. Personally, I think<br />
it&#8217;s hard to recruit great people in good times or bad, but recently we<br />
managed to land a couple of people that we really wanted. A new<br />
director of media, who has spent the last five years developing<br />
programs for emerging channels, just joined our San Francisco office.<br />
We were also able to recruit an interactive designer whose work we&#8217;ve<br />
admired for the past year. I believe A-plus talent will get you through<br />
almost anything. </p>
<p>
A big ambition is to provide more training for the entire agency. Not<br />
surprisingly, there&#8217;s a real hunger for knowledge about social media.<br />
We&#8217;ve got pockets of expertise, and a group of people that are actively<br />
using and experimenting with social networks. (You can follow me on<br />
Twitter at <a href="http://twitter.com/philjohnson" class="body" target="_blank">philjohnson</a>.)<br />
But I&#8217;d like everybody in the office to increase their fluency and most<br />
importantly participate in the action. We&#8217;ll also be lining up guest<br />
speakers and lunchtime seminars throughout the year. </p>
<p>
More than ever before, this will be a year for refining operations.<br />
We&#8217;re going to look at every process and behavior in the agency and<br />
weed out any habits that slow us down, add unnecessary expense or<br />
stifle creativity. I&#8217;m betting that victory will go to agencies that<br />
can be adaptable, quick on their feet, and able to dream up imaginative<br />
marketing programs for the full continuum of budgets. I&#8217;m hoping to be<br />
one of those agencies.
</p>
<p>I wish all of you great success and personal satisfaction in<br />
the coming year. May all of your hard work and talents be rewarded, all<br />
of your opinions be heard, and all of your best ideas see the light of<br />
day. </p>
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		<title>Two Guys Walking in the Woods</title>
		<link>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/two-guys-walking-in-the-woods/</link>
		<comments>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/two-guys-walking-in-the-woods/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 20:38:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bigmobile</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[There are two guys walking in the woods and they come across a hungry bear. The first guy takes out his running shoes and starts lacing them up when the second guy says, &#8220;Are you crazy? You can&#8217;t outrun that bear&#8221;. The first guy says, &#8220;I&#8217;m not going to try to outrun the bear&#8230; I&#8217;m [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=matthewminkin.wordpress.com&amp;blog=354556&amp;post=71&amp;subd=matthewminkin&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span style="font-size:11pt;font-family:&quot;">There are two guys walking in the woods and they come across a hungry bear. The first guy takes out his running shoes and starts lacing them up when the second guy says, &#8220;Are you crazy?<span> </span>You can&#8217;t outrun that bear&#8221;.<span> </span>The first guy says, &#8220;I&#8217;m not going to try to outrun the bear&#8230; I&#8217;m going to try to outrun YOU!&#8221;</span></p>
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		<title>American Housing Nightmare</title>
		<link>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/american-housing-nightmare/</link>
		<comments>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/american-housing-nightmare/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:57:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bigmobile</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Great American Housing Nightmare: Next Phase by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.&#160;&#160;&#160;11-03-08 One of the greatest blunders of our time is made by those who blindly assume home prices are so low they couldn’t possibly go any lower. In reality, home prices don’t stop going down at some particular level that appears to be “cheap.” [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=matthewminkin.wordpress.com&amp;blog=354556&amp;post=68&amp;subd=matthewminkin&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 class="issueTitle">The Great American Housing Nightmare: Next Phase</h2>
<p class="byline">by <span class="author"><a href="http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/topic/experts/martin-d-weiss-phd" title="Posts by Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.">Martin D. Weiss, Ph.D.</a></span>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;11-03-08</p>
<p>					<!-- Article Start -->
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">One of the<br />
greatest blunders of our time is made by those who blindly assume home<br />
prices are so low they couldn’t possibly go any lower.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In reality, home prices don’t stop going down at some particular  level that <em>appears</em> to be “cheap.” Nor  do they stop falling because they match some historical price that was  previously a low.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><em>The end of the decline in home prices will come  only when there are no new economic forces driving them down.</em></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">When will that<br />
be? I’d love to say it’s just around the corner. But<br />
everything I see tells me that, despite the sharp declines already<br />
recorded, a steeper plunge in home values is dead ahead.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The reason: So far, most of the troubles in the housing market  have been caused by bad mortgages going sour. Meanwhile,</font></p>
<ul type="square">
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">the more common<br />
causes of housing slumps — high interest rates, rising<br />
unemployment, and recession — are just starting to kick in. And<br />
…<br />
</font>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">  </font>
</p>
</li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">the most powerful causes — depression and deflation — are  still on the horizon.</font></li>
</ul>
<p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the boom<br />
leading up to the Great Depression of the 1930s, most Americans did not<br />
borrow money to buy a home. Variable rate mortgages didn’t exist.<br />
And Wall Street investors rarely got involved in the business of<br />
financing homes. Home prices did fall dramatically. But those price<br />
declines came mostly <em>after</em> the stock market crashed, <em>after</em> the economy shrunk and <em>after </em>millions of workers had lost their  jobs.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The crux of the problem today: <em>That phase of the housing crisis still lies ahead. </em>Moreover, this  time, because of massive debts, the pressure to abandon or sell homes is far  greater. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Conclusion: If<br />
the U.S. sinks into a depression, home price declines could be as deep<br />
as, or deeper than, those of the Great Depression, especially in the<br />
hardest hit regions of the country.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">It is a<br />
frightening thought. Yet, on the positive side, a sharply reduced price<br />
for the average home is the only fundamental, enduring mechanism for<br />
making homes more affordable and restoring demand — especially if<br />
the days of easy credit are gone.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Already, in 2008,<br />
one in ten American homeowners has defaulted on their mortgage or lost<br />
their home in foreclosure. Nearly four in ten owe more than their home<br />
is worth. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">And all this is <em>before</em> the recession deepens and before we experience the <em>next</em> phase of the Great American Housing Nightmare.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Why This Was One of the Biggest <br />
  Speculative Manias of All Time</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The Great American Housing Nightmare has no precedent; no historical  roadmap to guide you, no proven pathway to follow. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">No one can tell<br />
you with precision how far U.S. home prices will decline, when they<br />
will hit bottom, how many homeowners will lose their homes, or how soon<br />
a real recovery will begin. Getting to a recovery could take many years.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In fact, to throw<br />
some light on the speculative frenzy and panic that have swept through<br />
the U.S. housing market, the most relevant precedents I could find have<br />
nothing to do with homes at all. They are the Dutch speculative mania<br />
of the 1630s, the South Sea Bubble of the 1700s and the stock market<br />
panics of the early 1900s.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In those<br />
boom-and-bust episodes, the objects of speculation were tulips, slaves<br />
and stocks. This time, it was the American home. But despite that key<br />
difference, the critical <em>boom-bust</em> <em>elements</em> that helped create the speculation  — and the depth of the losses which ensued — were roughly similar.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em><font color="#990000">Boom-Bust  Element #1:</font> Debt</em></strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Debt is the fuel<br />
of speculation. Without it, speculative bubbles cannot emerge. With it,<br />
prices can be inflated beyond the wildest imagination.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In seventeenth<br />
century Holland, investors speculated wildly on tulips, putting up as<br />
little as 2.5% of their own cash. Similarly, in early 20th century<br />
stock market booms, investors put up as little as 10% of their own<br />
money, using borrowed funds for up to 90% of their purchases.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">But in many<br />
respects, the borrowing mania that created the Great American Housing<br />
Nightmare makes all previous debt manias pale by comparison.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">By mid-year 2008,<br />
the Federal Reserve reported a grand total of $14.8 trillion in U.S.<br />
mortgages outstanding — 40% more than the entire national debt<br />
and triple the total of all the mortgages in America just a dozen years<br />
earlier.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Sadly, it was not just the supersized <em>quantity</em> of debt that was so dangerous.  Even more <em>dangerous</em> was the substandard <em>quality</em> of the debt. Consider the  facts:</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1139/1.gif" alt="Bullet" title="Next Phase" height="15" width="15" /> In all prior speculative  bubbles in history, investors were required to put up at least <em>some</em><br />
of their own money to buy into the boom. Even in the tech stock mania<br />
of the early 2000s, investors had to put up a minimum of 50% cash for<br />
their stock purchases.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>But in the frenzy that preceded the Great  American Housing Nightmare, millions of Americans bought homes with zero money  down!</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Lenders<br />
didn’t merely look the other way while home owners borrowed the<br />
down payment; they actively encouraged it. Homebuyers without enough<br />
cash to buy a $500 TV set were declared the proud new owners of<br />
$500,000 luxury homes. Many took it one step further with serial<br />
purchases of homes, leapfrogging with glee from one free ride to the<br />
next.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1139/2.gif" alt="Bullet" title="Next Phase" height="15" width="15" /><br />
In all prior speculative bubbles, borrowers were invariably required to<br />
make payments of interest and principal in full and without fail, with<br />
zero tolerance for any other arrangement.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>In<br />
contrast, during the Great American Housing Nightmare, millions of<br />
homeowners were allowed to pay interest only or even less than full<br />
interest.</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">So it should come<br />
as no surprise that the majority opted to make the smallest payments<br />
allowed, while the lender added the unpaid amounts to the loan balance.<br />
As with credit cards, the more that time went by, the deeper into debt<br />
the borrowers fell.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1139/3.gif" alt="Bullet" title="Next Phase" height="15" width="15" /><br />
In prior historical episodes of rampant speculation, loans were almost<br />
invariably held by the lenders, who, in turn, had a vested interest in<br />
making sure the borrower’s finances were sound and their payments<br />
were kept current.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>But in<br />
the Great American Housing Nightmare, the mortgages were mostly held by<br />
non-lenders — institutions and investors that were far removed<br />
from the borrowers.</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1139/4.gif" alt="Bullet" title="Next Phase" height="15" width="15" /><br />
In earlier manias, investors speculating with borrowed funds were<br />
required to document that they were worthy of the loans. They<br />
invariably had to present hard evidence of income, proof of assets, or<br />
both.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>But in<br />
the Great American Housing Nightmare, even that was not the case.<br />
Millions were allowed to borrow huge sums without a scintilla of proof<br />
that they had the wherewithal to make the payments.</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><img src="http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1139/5.gif" alt="Bullet" title="Next Phase" height="15" width="15" /> In earlier manias, the  bubble was generally confined primarily to one debt sector.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Not this<br />
time around! Beyond the $14.8 trillion in residential and commercial<br />
mortgages in America, there are another $20.4 trillion in consumer and<br />
corporate debts. This meant that mortgages represent only 42% of the<br />
private-sector debt problem in the country.</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Result: Americans<br />
are not only under tremendous pressure to sell their homes due to<br />
burdensome mortgages, they are also squeezed by huge credit card<br />
balances and by layoffs from employers equally addicted to debt.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">By virtually<br />
every measure, the debts piled up prior to the Great American Housing<br />
Nightmare are far bigger and worse than any debt pile-up ever witnessed<br />
in history.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em><font color="#990000">Boom-Bust Element  #2:</font> Investor Frenzy</em></strong></font></p>
<table style="margin:0 20px 10px 0;" align="left" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="175">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="padding-bottom:15px;"><img src="http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1139/gouda-tulip-bulbs.gif" alt="Gouda Tulip Bulbs" title="Next Phase" height="230" width="200" /></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><img src="http://images.moneyandmarkets.com/1139/south-sea-shares.gif" alt="South Sea Co. Shares" title="Next Phase" height="241" width="200" /></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In 1637,  at the height of the tulip mania, just one <em>Semper  Augustus</em><br />
bulb changed hands for 12 acres of land. Another bulb was sold for a<br />
massive collection of goods, including 160 bushels of wheat, 160<br />
bushels of rye, four oxen, twelve swine, two hogsheds of wine, four<br />
casks of beer, two tons of butter, 1,000 pounds of cheese and more. But<br />
just a few months later, similar bulbs were practically worthless.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In 1720,<br />
investors drove up shares in the South Sea Company from 125 to 960 in<br />
six months and back down again to 180 in less than three months.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In 1929, the Dow Jones Industrials surged from 213 in 1928  to 381 in 1929, only fall to 41 in 1932.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In each case,<br />
investors and speculators — most with little experience in the<br />
market — were caught up in a wild buying frenzy, only to dump<br />
nearly everything in an even wilder selling panic.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Unfortunately, we<br />
witnessed a similar pattern prior to the Great American Housing<br />
Nightmare. As the buying frenzy heated up, homes and condos were<br />
flipped faster than hotcakes. Prices were driven through the roof. And<br />
even mortgages themselves were transformed into securities that were<br />
riskier than some of the riskiest stocks in the world.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">At the peak of<br />
the housing bubble, the average price of existing home reached nearly<br />
five times the total yearly income of its owners, the highest in<br />
history. At the same time, the affordability of each home plunged to<br />
its <em>lowest</em> level in  history.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Once set in<br />
motion, the speculative fever spread quickly. From Miami to Phoenix to<br />
San Diego to Las Vegas, investors camped outside housing developments<br />
to snap up three, four, five, or more units at a time. Condominium<br />
developers built gleaming towers in major cities, based almost<br />
exclusively on anticipated bids from investors and speculators and with<br />
no evidence of real underlying demand. From coast to coast, investors<br />
signed on to millions of pre-construction contracts, only to flip them<br />
before the first shovels touched the ground.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">This kind of<br />
speculation was traditionally just a small niche in the giant U.S.<br />
housing market. But at the peak of the housing boom, it nearly took<br />
over: An astounding 40% of houses and condos were bought as second<br />
homes or investments. The yearly rate of appreciation on existing homes<br />
catapulted from 3.6% in January 2001 to 16.6% in November 2005. On new<br />
homes, meanwhile, it surged from 4.8% in to 18.1%.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Fueling the<br />
bubble, government agencies like Ginnie Mae, government-sponsored<br />
enterprises like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and private investment<br />
banks bundled up mortgages and resold them as securities that could be<br />
traded much like stocks and bonds. These securities, in turn, were<br />
bought by banks and investors in the U.S., Europe and Asia. The total<br />
amount of mortgages transformed into these securities: $4.8 trillion,<br />
60% more than the total value of all the stocks in the Dow Jones<br />
Industrial Average.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In just one year — 2006 — $2.4 trillion in new  mortgage-backed securities were created, more than <em>triple </em>the<br />
amount of just six years prior. Even in past investment manias, there<br />
was no such structure. Even the wild and wooly speculators of the<br />
1600s, 1700s and the early 1900s did not take the madness to <em>that</em> extreme.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em><font color="#990000">Boom-Bust Element  #3:</font></em></strong><br />
    <strong>Government-Created Monopolies,</strong><br />
    <strong>Corruption, Fraud and Cover-Ups</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Some of the<br />
largest speculative bubbles of all time were born out of<br />
government-sponsored monopolies, nurtured by government-bred<br />
bureaucrats and kept alive beyond their time by government-inspired<br />
corruption, fraud and cover-ups.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the South Sea<br />
Bubble of 1711, the English government needed to find a way to fund the<br />
huge debts it had incurred in the War of Spanish Succession. So the<br />
Lord Treasurer, Robert Harley, created the South Sea Trading company to<br />
help finance the government’s debts. The company got exclusive<br />
trading rights in the South Atlantic plus a perpetual government<br />
annuity of over a half million pounds per year. In exchange, its<br />
investors agreed to assume responsibility for about £10 million<br />
of the government’s debt.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">It seemed like a<br />
win-win. But the government’s sponsorship and the company’s<br />
monopoly led to big trouble. The company’s managers, thinking<br />
they had the government’s largesse to fall back on, were<br />
complacent and ignored signs of economic troubles. They took excessive<br />
risk. And ultimately, investigations turned up massive fraud at the<br />
company and pervasive corruption in the government.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">When the entire<br />
structure collapsed, there was nothing the government could do except<br />
to pass what later become known as the “Bubble Act” aimed<br />
to prevent a future recurrence.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Similarly, in the<br />
early 1900s, the Panic of 1901 occurred in the wake of a failed attempt<br />
to create a massive railroad monopoly; the Panic of 1907 followed a<br />
failed attempt to corner the copper market; and the Crash of 1929<br />
resulted, to a large degree, from collusion among brokers, bankers and<br />
tycoons.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In nearly every<br />
case, the government gave select companies or individuals special<br />
privileges, waived critical regulations and encouraged great<br />
concentration of power. And in nearly every case, the government made<br />
desperate attempts to salvage the boom long after the bust began. <em>But it was ultimately  powerless to avert a collapse in the very structures it had helped to create.</em></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Unfortunately,<br />
the same, or worse, could happen in the Great American Housing Bubble:<br />
The U.S. government created two monopolies that made England’s<br />
eighteenth century South Sea Company and America’s twentieth<br />
century industrial monopolies look small by comparison. Their names:<br />
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The U.S.<br />
Government gave these companies monopolistic control over<br />
America’s largest debt market — mortgages. And then,<br />
beginning in the early 2000s, the government spurred these monopolies<br />
to compete aggressively with private subprime lenders.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Not surprisingly,<br />
the results were similar to those of earlier bubbles: Extreme<br />
complacency, excessive risk-taking, and, ultimately, fraud.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In September<br />
2004, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise (OFHE), Fannie’s<br />
and Freddie’s primary regulator, issued a special report<br />
revealing massive accounting irregularities. And four years later, in<br />
September 2008, the companies had <em>still</em> not cleaned up their<br />
act, prompting the Securities and Exchange Commission to launch new<br />
investigations into accounting deceptions.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The biggest<br />
deception of all: In their official filings and public pronouncements<br />
this year, Fannie and Freddie consistently and wildly overstated their<br />
capital, while understating their risk. Supposedly built with mortar<br />
and steel, Fannie and Freddie were actually houses of cards in disguise.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Repeatedly, the<br />
company executives swore on oath that they had more than enough<br />
capital. And even on the eve of their demise, their regulators<br />
testified before Congress that the companies were solvent.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Based on their<br />
smoke-and-mirrors accounting, perhaps. But based on the basic rules<br />
that you and I must abide by, not even close. For longer than anyone<br />
cared to admit, Fannie and Freddie had been insolvent. Meanwhile, their<br />
chief executives hid behind carefully camouflaged facade, marched into<br />
riskier corners of the mortgage market, and trashed the trust of<br />
millions of Americans with no sign of restraint and little expression<br />
of regret.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Between 2005 and<br />
2008, for example, Fannie Mae purchased or guaranteed at least $270<br />
billion in subprime mortgages — high-fee loans to high-risk<br />
borrowers. That was more than <em>three</em> times as much as it had bought in <em>all</em> its earlier years combined.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Yet no one seemed to bat  an eyelash.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Quite the contrary, Wall  Street and Washington cheered loudly, encouraging them to take on even more  risk.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Why such<br />
enthusiasm? Because the rapid growth in fees supercharged<br />
Fannie’s stock price. Because big revenues meant huge bonuses for<br />
executives — $90 million for one, $30.8 million for another, and<br />
$10 million for a third. And because the easy money flowing to<br />
unqualified borrowers indirectly helped politicians buy millions of<br />
votes.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Suddenly,<br />
however, in September 2008, it was finally recognized that all the<br />
financial statements and all the sworn testimony about solvency were<br />
unabashed lies. Suddenly, the two largest mortgage lenders on earth,<br />
supposedly rich and prosperous, were thoroughly bankrupt. And suddenly,<br />
underscoring the depth of their demise, each company needed an<br />
unprecedented $100 billion injection of government funds just to keep<br />
it alive.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">The potential<br />
bill to taxpayers: $200 billion. But that figure assumes an end to the<br />
credit crunch, no more debt collapses, no recession, and certainly no<br />
depression. If any of these assumptions should prove wrong, $200<br />
billion will barely cover what is fast becoming history’s largest<br />
cesspool of sinking debts and commitments — $5.2 trillion in<br />
mortgages guaranteed or owned by the two companies, their $1.5 trillion<br />
in debts, and their $2 trillion in derivatives.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em><font color="#990000">Boom-Bust Element  #4:</font> Collapse!</em></strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">How much could<br />
home prices ultimately decline in the Great American Housing Nightmare?<br />
We have no way of knowing with certainty. But we <em>can</em> draw some lessons from similar  bubbles and crashes throughout history:</font></p>
<ul type="square">
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the Dutch<br />
Tulip Mania, investors lost nearly all of their money if they bought<br />
for cash; more than all of their money if they bought on the slim<br />
margin of just 2.5%.<br />
</font>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">	</font>
</p>
</li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the<br />
South Sea Bubble, the cost of the shares investors bought fell from a<br />
peak of 1,000 to less than 100, a loss of 90% or more.<br />
</font>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">  </font>
</p>
</li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the<br />
Crash of 1929 and the ensuing 3-year bear market, investors lost 89% of<br />
their money even in America’s largest industrial stocks.<br />
</font>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">  </font>
</p>
</li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the<br />
tech wreck of 2000-2002, when a myriad of Internet and technology<br />
companies collapsed, investors lost 78% of their money invested in the<br />
average Nasdaq stock; and 100% in companies that went under.<br />
</font>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">  </font>
</p>
</li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In<br />
Japan’s long bear market, which stretches from 1990 to the<br />
present, investors have lost 82% of their money from peak to trough in<br />
companies that make up the Nikkei average, and much more in smaller<br />
companies.<br />
</font>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">  </font>
</p>
</li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">And in<br />
the financial crisis of 2008, investors lost 99% or more of their money<br />
in some of America’s most respected financial institutions.</font></li>
</ul>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">My argument: The<br />
speculative bubble in U.S. homes is as extreme as each of these<br />
historic examples; and in the most hard-hit regions, the resulting<br />
price collapse could be equally extreme. Indeed, the Great American<br />
Housing Nightmare is progressing in three phases:</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em>Phase 1.</em></strong> The bust in the subprime mortgage market. This is now  history.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em>Phase 2.</em></strong> A severe U.S.  recession. As of this writing, this phase is just beginning.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em>Phase 3.</em></strong> Depression and deflation. Still ahead.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Therefore, no<br />
matter how far home prices in your area have already fallen and no<br />
matter how cheap they may appear, they could still fall <em>a lot</em> further.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">In the hardest<br />
hit regions, an individual home that was once priced for $400,000 at<br />
its peak could fall to as low as $200,000 by the end of Phase 1. But<br />
don’t blindly assume that’s the bottom. In Phase 2, it<br />
could fall in half again, to $100,000. And in Phase 3, it could fall by<br />
at least half for a third time, to as low as $50,000 or $40,000.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Homes with peak<br />
prices of $1 million could sell for as little as $100,000; some,<br />
originally priced for $10 million may have no buyers at all —<br />
even with asking prices as low as $1 million.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Nationwide, the<br />
median home price will not fall nearly that far. But that factoid alone<br />
will do nothing for homeowners in bubble areas like Florida, Nevada or<br />
California. Nor will it help those in blighted regions where factories<br />
are closed and unemployment rises far above the national average.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Never before in<br />
history have we witnessed home price declines of this magnitude! But<br />
that fact alone does not make them implausible, let alone impossible.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Remember: Never<br />
before in history has so much debt, speculation, government<br />
manipulation, fraud, corruption and consumer abuse been heaped onto any<br />
housing market! And if there’s one thing that history teaches us,<br />
it’s that unprecedented causes lead to unprecedented consequences.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong>Lessons To Learn Now Before It’s Too Late</strong></font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em>Lesson #1.</em></strong><em> Don’t blame yourself.</em><br />
Virtually every realtor and expert in America told you that investing<br />
in homes was a “sure bet”; and any lender in the country<br />
that accepted your loan application was, in effect, telling you that<br />
you had the means to make the payments.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em>Lesson #2.</em></strong><em> Don’t look back.</em><br />
Forget what your property was worth at its peak. And try to forget what<br />
you paid for it as well. That’s water under the bridge. Instead,<br />
look at what’s happening <em>today</em> — in  the headlines, in your neighborhood, at companies in your area.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em>Lesson #3.</em></strong><em> Don’t count on the  government to save the day.</em><br />
There are bound to be a series of public programs to help some people<br />
some of the time. But they will be spotty; they won’t turn the<br />
housing market around; and you may not qualify. For example, the<br />
FHASecure program rolled out in late 2007 essentially created three<br />
classes of homeowners with mortgages:</font></p>
<ul type="square">
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Homeowners current on their mortgages and not at risk of foreclosure  were mostly <em>not</em> eligible for federal  assistance;<br />
</font>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">  </font>
</p>
</li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Those already in foreclosure were also not eligible; and …<br />
</font>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">	</font>
</p>
</li>
<li><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Ironically, only home owners falling behind in their  mortgage payments could get government help.</font></li>
</ul>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Not only did that make it very difficult for most people to  qualify, but it also gave a strong incentive to households to <em>deliberately fall behind on their mortgages. </em>People asked: <em>“</em>Why should I cut <em>my</em> food budget or give up on <em>my</em> nights out when my neighbor is having  all the fun, skipping his mortgage payments and getting <em>rewarded</em> by the government for his imprudent behavior?”</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">Ultimately, these kinds of government programs are  fundamentally flawed and doomed to fail.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif"><strong><em>The most  important lesson of all: </em></strong>Don’t<br />
underestimate the potential depth, speed and duration of the decline.<br />
As the debts are unraveled, the economy comes unglued and the<br />
deceptions are uncovered, home prices could continue to plunge much<br />
further.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif">If you are able and willing to sell your properties, do so  now. Don’t wait.</font></p>
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		<title>Infamous Sequoia Capital downturn presentation</title>
		<link>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/infamous-sequoia-capital-downturn-presentation/</link>
		<comments>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/infamous-sequoia-capital-downturn-presentation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:53:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bigmobile</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Business]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Sequoia Capital on startups and the economic downturn View SlideShare presentation or Upload your own. (tags: depression recession)<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=matthewminkin.wordpress.com&amp;blog=354556&amp;post=66&amp;subd=matthewminkin&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div style="width:425px;text-align:left;" id="__ss_648808"><a href="http://www.slideshare.net/eldon/sequoia-capital-on-startups-and-the-economic-downturn-presentation?type=powerpoint" title="Sequoia Capital on startups and the economic downturn">Sequoia Capital on startups and the economic downturn</a>
<div style="font-size:11px;font-family:tahoma,arial;height:26px;padding-top:2px;">View SlideShare <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/eldon/sequoia-capital-on-startups-and-the-economic-downturn-presentation?type=powerpoint" title="View Sequoia Capital on startups and the economic downturn on SlideShare">presentation</a> or <a href="http://www.slideshare.net/upload?type=powerpoint">Upload</a> your own. (tags: <a href="http://slideshare.net/tag/depression">depression</a> <a href="http://slideshare.net/tag/recession">recession</a>)</div>
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		<title>parenting blogging community</title>
		<link>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2008/11/24/parenting-blogging-community/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Nov 2008 19:49:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[imagine a blog community soley focused on parenting.&#160; The members would each have their own blog to publish parenting problems, stories, ideas, advice, etc for others in the community to view, comment on and rate.&#160; Imagine all the worlds parental wisdom written in one location, categorized, ranked, discussed, debated, and of course all searchable.&#160; You [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=matthewminkin.wordpress.com&amp;blog=354556&amp;post=65&amp;subd=matthewminkin&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>imagine a blog community soley focused on parenting.&nbsp; The members would each have their own blog to publish parenting problems, stories, ideas, advice, etc for others in the community to view, comment on and rate.&nbsp; Imagine all the worlds parental wisdom written in one location, categorized, ranked, discussed, debated, and of course all searchable.&nbsp; You could share your daily, weekly, monthly blog entries with just friends, or family, or everyone, or anonymously.</p>
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		<title>How to Pitch Anything in Two Minutes</title>
		<link>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2008/09/10/how-to-pitch-anything-in-two-minutes/</link>
		<comments>http://matthewminkin.wordpress.com/2008/09/10/how-to-pitch-anything-in-two-minutes/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Sep 2008 02:56:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>bigmobile</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Communications coach Carmine Gallo discusses five simple tips for pitching a product, service, company—or yourself by Carmine Gallo I recently gave a talk about communications skills at a company that makes high-end kitchen appliances. Later in the day, the company&#8217;s new spokesperson, a celebrity chef, demonstrated some new products. Out of several appliances, I thought [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=matthewminkin.wordpress.com&amp;blog=354556&amp;post=63&amp;subd=matthewminkin&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
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<h1></h1>
<h2>Communications coach Carmine Gallo discusses five simple tips for pitching a product, service, company—or yourself</h2>
<p class="byline">by<br />
<a href="http://www.businessweek.com/print/bios/Carmine_Gallo.htm">Carmine Gallo</a>
</p>
<p>
I recently gave a talk about communications skills at a company that<br />
makes high-end kitchen appliances. Later in the day, the company&#8217;s new<br />
spokesperson, a celebrity chef, demonstrated some new products. Out of<br />
several appliances, I thought the toaster would be the least<br />
interesting. After all, what&#8217;s so exciting about a toaster? Mine works<br />
perfectly fine, thank you. But as much as I didn&#8217;t want to admit it, by<br />
the end of the demo I wanted to buy the toaster. I returned home and<br />
asked my wife if it was time to replace our toaster. Why? The chef&#8217;s<br />
two-minute pitch had been so persuasive it changed my attitude and<br />
turned me into a believer. Actually, it did better than that. It<br />
transformed me into a product evangelist. I&#8217;ve already sung the<br />
toaster&#8217;s praises to several people. The chef, perhaps unknowingly but<br />
extremely convincingly, used five techniques to sell me. Anyone can<br />
adopt these techniques to pitch just about anything—from<br />
appliances to services to themselves.
</p>
<p>Demonstrate enthusiasm. If you&#8217;re not passionate about the product,<br />
your listeners won&#8217;t be. The chef said: &#8220;Now here&#8217;s something I&#8217;m<br />
really excited about.&#8221; I thought to myself, If he&#8217;s excited, maybe I<br />
should pay attention. There might be more to this toaster than I<br />
thought. Your listeners are giving you permission to have fun and to<br />
show excitement. All too often, business professionals get into<br />
&#8220;presentation mode,&#8221; and lose their personality and enthusiasm. <a href="http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?capId=36312">Virgin&#8217;s</a><br />
Richard Branson has a key condition for entering a new business: It has<br />
to be fun. If it&#8217;s not fun, why bother? Too many of us are subject to<br />
dull pitches and presentations. Inject some excitement into your pitch.<br />
(For tips on boosting your energy level, read my previous <a href="http://www.businessweek.com/smallbiz/content/dec2007/sb20071221_339541.htm">column</a> (see BusinessWeek.com, 12/21/07).
</p>
<p>
Find a personal connection. The chef didn&#8217;t start by demonstrating the<br />
toaster. He spent a few seconds talking about how he grew up with this<br />
company&#8217;s products in his home and just how ingrained the products were<br />
in his country&#8217;s culture. By doing so, he showed he cared about the<br />
product and wasn&#8217;t just paid to pitch something with which he had no<br />
personal connection. Remember, people want to like the person behind<br />
the product. A famous New York mutual fund manager once told me that he<br />
invests in people, not buildings or things. He needs to respect and<br />
admire the person behind the company before he considers investing.<br />
Your listeners want to make an investment in you. Make them feel good<br />
about the person they&#8217;re backing.
</p>
<p>Sell the benefit. While showing us that the outside of the appliance<br />
was cool to the touch, the chef mentioned how it was designed with<br />
safety in mind, and used an example of kids playing in a kitchen.<br />
Instead of simply demonstrating the features behind the product, the<br />
chef sold the benefit behind the features. This is a critical<br />
persuasion technique. Identify the potential problem before offering a<br />
solution.
</p>
<h3>Nobody Wants a Drill Bit</h3>
<p>There is a saying in the insurance industry that every year, 6<br />
million quarter-inch drill bits are sold, yet nobody wants a<br />
quarter-inch drill bit; they want a quarter-inch hole. Nobody cares<br />
about the features of a life-insurance policy, but they want to know<br />
what the features provide, such as peace of mind and financial security<br />
in the event of a mishap. When I returned home from my trip on<br />
Southwest (<a href="http://investing.businessweek.com/research/stocks/snapshot/snapshot.asp?symbol=LUV" rel="ticker">LUV</a>),<br />
I noticed that in all the company&#8217;s marketing material, Southwest is<br />
not selling a plane ride—it is selling productivity. From the way<br />
the company describes its new boarding procedures, promoting on-time<br />
arrivals and new workspaces in waiting areas, the message is<br />
clear—we sell productivity. Ask yourself: What are you really<br />
selling? You will find that you are not selling a widget; instead, you<br />
are selling a better life for your customer thanks to the experience<br />
your widget provides.
</p>
<p>Tell stories. &#8220;Let me tell you about an experience I had with a<br />
world-renowned chef in London&#8230;&#8221; With that, the chef regaled us with<br />
memories of his travels. Stories create connections between<br />
individuals. They can tell your listeners more about your product than<br />
just the facts.
</p>
<p>For example, in the area of enterprise security technology, I<br />
recently met a smart IT manager who successfully sells ideas by telling<br />
stories. He doesn&#8217;t start a pitch by saying: &#8220;This enterprise level<br />
security solution represents best-in-class technology for our scalable<br />
architecture.&#8221; Instead, he tells stories that begin like this: &#8220;Imagine<br />
walking into work Monday morning to find that your computers had been<br />
stolen…&#8221; Simple stories can take under 30 seconds to tell but<br />
can offer more information than mountains of data. Too few business<br />
professionals recognize the power of stories to create a common thread<br />
of understanding between speaker and listener. Tell more stories and<br />
you&#8217;ll stand apart.
</p>
<p>Teach us something new. The chef demonstrating the toaster taught us<br />
about a nesting trend and how this new toaster fit into it. Kitchens<br />
have become showplaces, he explained. Homeowners not only want<br />
appliances that look good—they want devices that save energy,<br />
come in colors other than white, offer more functions, and are easy to<br />
clean.
</p>
<p>A venture capitalist who I interviewed for a panel offered this<br />
advice to the entrepreneurs in the audience: &#8220;If you can teach me<br />
something I didn&#8217;t know before, you&#8217;ll have my attention, and perhaps<br />
my money!&#8221; Every successful pitch has the element of knowledge,<br />
teaching your listeners something that wasn&#8217;t obvious to your audience.
</p>
<p>Creating a positive association with a product as mundane as a<br />
toaster is no easy feat. Yet this chef won me over in under two<br />
minutes. This proves you have the ability to persuade your listeners<br />
with every pitch. Don&#8217;t believe you have a dull product. As a former<br />
correspondent for CNN, I learned that how the message is told is as<br />
important as the message itself.
</p>
<p class="tagline">
<a href="http://www.businessweek.com/bios/Carmine_Gallo.htm">Carmine Gallo</a> is a Pleasanton, Calif. communications coach and author of the book, <cite>Fire Them Up!</cite> (John Wiley &amp; Sons; October, 2007).
</p>
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